Dynamic equity in personal income tax design: Theory and application to Vietnam’s 2026 reform
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/pmf.15(2).2026.12
-
Article InfoVolume 15 2026, Issue #2, pp. 148-160
- 8 Views
-
1 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Type of the article: Research Article
Abstract
Static personal income tax governance in fast-growing economies can produce systematic equity erosion, as nominally fixed deductions and brackets gradually increase the effective tax burden on low- and middle-income households during periods of sustained income growth. This study develops a dynamic equity framework for evaluating personal income tax (PIT) design and applies it to Vietnam’s 2026 PIT reform as an illustrative case. Drawing on welfare economics, optimal tax theory, and contextual equity arguments, the study constructs a normative framework that treats PIT parameters as adaptive variables and evaluates reform effects using welfare-theoretic criteria. The framework identifies equity lag, defined as the divergence between a fixed PIT schedule and evolving economic conditions, as a central governance failure. The Vietnam case suggests that five years of parameter stagnation are consistent with the emergence of a systematic equity lag among low- and middle-income formal workers, a pattern illustrated through simulation analysis rather than full empirical validation. In this sense, the deduction increases may be interpreted as a Kaldor-Hicks welfare improvement concentrated in the lower and middle portions of the formal wage distribution. However, a one-time adjustment without an embedded updating mechanism is unlikely to prevent the recurrence of equity lag as growth and inflation resume. Sustaining distributional gains, therefore, requires a shift from episodic legislative correction to adaptive PIT governance through indexation rules, mandatory review schedules, and regionally calibrated deduction thresholds.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)H21, H24, H31, D31
-
References41
-
Tables2
-
Figures0
-
- Table 1. Personal income tax schedules and family-circumstance deductions in Vietnam before and after the 2026 reform
- Table 2. Simulated annual PIT liabilities before and after the 2026 reform in Vietnam
-
- Altemeyer-Bartscher, M., & Zeddies, G. (2017). Bracket creep: Bane or boon for the stability of numerical budget rules? (IWH Discussion Paper No. 29/2016). Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Atkinson, A. B., & Stiglitz, J. E. (1976). The design of tax structure: Direct versus indirect taxation. Journal of Public Economics, 6(1-2), 55-75.
- Australian Parliamentary Budget Office. (2022, July 11). Bracket creep and its fiscal impact. Presentation to the Australian Conference of Economists.
- Bachas, P., Jensen, A., & Gadenne, L. (2024). Tax equity in low-and middle-income countries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 38(1), 55-80.
- Benedek, D., Benitez, J. C., & Vellutini, C. (2022). Progress of the personal income tax in emerging and developing countries (IMF Working Paper No. WP/22/020). International Monetary Fund.
- Boadway, R. W., & Bruce, N. (1984). Welfare economics. Basil Blackwell, Oxford.
- Deutsche Bundesbank. (2022). Inflation-induced bracket creep in the income tax scale. Monthly report (pp. 63-73).
- Diamond, P. (1980). Income taxation with fixed hours of work. Journal of Public Economics, 13(1), 101-110.
- Diamond, P. A., & Mirrlees, J. A. (1971). Optimal taxation and public production I: Production efficiency. The American Economic Review, 61(1), 8-27.
- García-Miralles, E., Freier, M., Riscado, S., Leventi, C., Mazzon, A., Abela, G., Boyd, L., Brusbārde, B., Cochard, M., Cornille, D., Dicarlo, E., Debattista, I., Delgado-Téllez, M., Dolls, M., Fadejeva, L., Flevotomou, M., Henne, F., Harrer-Bachleitner, A., Jászberényi-Király, V., ... Wemans, L. (2026). Fiscal drag in theory and in practice: A European perspective. European Economic Review, 185, Article 05275.
- General Statistics Office (GSO). (2026a, January 4). Socio-economic situation in the fourth quarter and 2025. Hanoi: General Statistics Office of Viet Nam.
- General Statistics Office (GSO). (2026b, January). Consumer price index, gold price index, and USD price index – January 2025. Hanoi: General Statistics Office of Viet Nam.
- Government Portal of Vietnam (VGP). (2025, October 17). Viet Nam to raise monthly personal income tax deductions from 2026.
- Hicks, J. R. (1939). The foundations of welfare economics. The Economic Journal, 49(196), 696-712.
- Kaldor, N. (1939). Welfare propositions of economics and interpersonal comparisons of utility. The Economic Journal, 49(195), 549-552.
- Loras-Gimeno, D., Gómez-Bengoechea, G., & Díaz-Lanchas, J. (2024). Fiscal redistribution and the narrowing urban–rural income gap. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 16(5), Article 100045.
- LuatVietnam. (2026, February 24). Personal income tax policies 2026: Five major changes.
- Mirrlees, J. A. (1971). An exploration in the theory of optimum income taxation. The Review of Economic Studies, 38(2), 175-208.
- Musgrave, R. A., & Musgrave, P. B. (1989). Public finance in theory and practice (5th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
- National Assembly of Vietnam. (2007). Law on Personal Income Tax No. 04/2007/QH12. Hanoi: National Assembly of Vietnam.
- National Assembly of Vietnam. (2025). Law on Personal Income Tax Law No. 109/2025/QH15. Hanoi: National Assembly of Vietnam.
- Nguyen Huu, T., & Nguyen Thuong, T. (2023). Personal income tax bracket and base deduction reform in Vietnam. International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research, 8(10), 3029-3046.
- OECD. (2006). Fundamental reform of personal income tax (OECD Tax Policy Studies No. 13). Paris: OECD Publishing.
- OECD. (2020). Multi-dimensional review of Viet Nam: Towards an integrated, transparent and sustainable economy (OECD Development Pathways). OECD Publishing.
- Piketty, T., Saez, E., & Stantcheva, S. (2014). Optimal taxation of top labor incomes: A tale of three elasticities. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 6(1), 230-271.
- PwC. (2025). Vietnam – Individual: Taxes on personal income. PwC Worldwide Tax Summaries.
- Ramos, X., & Lambert, P. J. (2003). Horizontal equity and differences in income tax treatment: A reconciliation. In Y. Amiel & J. A. Bishop (Eds.), Fiscal Policy, Inequality and Welfare (vol. 10, pp. 45-63). Emerald Group Publishing.
- Rodriguez, L., Trzcinski, K., & Wai-Poi, M. (2023). Fiscal policy and equity: Vietnam 2018 fiscal incidence analysis (Policy Research Working Paper No. 10538). Washington, DC: World Bank.
- Saez, E. (2001). Using elasticities to derive optimal income tax rates. The Review of Economic Studies, 68(1), 205-229.
- Saez, E. (2002). Optimal income transfer programs: Intensive versus extensive labor supply responses. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(3), 1039-1073.
- Sanz Sanz, J. F., & Arrazola Vacas, M. (2025). Unveiling the bracket creep: Static versus dynamic fiscal drag. Journal of Economics, 146(3), 443-475.
- Sørensen, P. B. (2009). The theory of optimal taxation: New developments and policy relevance (EPRU Working Paper Series No. 2009-09). University of Copenhagen, Economic Policy Research Unit.
- Standing Committee of the National Assembly. (2025). Resolution No. 110/2025/UBTVQH15 on the adjustment of family circumstance deduction levels under the Law on Personal Income Tax. Hanoi: National Assembly of Vietnam.
- Stiglitz, J. E. (1987). Pareto efficient and optimal taxation and the new new welfare economics. In A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (Eds.), Handbook of Public Economics (vol. 2, pp. 991-1042). Elsevier.
- Takikawa, H. (2024). Optimal income taxation and formalization of the informal economy. Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University.
- Tanzi, V., & Zee, H. H. (2000). Tax policy for emerging markets: Developing countries. National Tax Journal, 53(2), 299-322.
- Torgler, B. (2011). Tax morale and compliance: Review of evidence and case studies for Europe (Policy Research Working Paper No. 5922). Washington, DC: World Bank.
- Viet Nam Government Portal (VGP). (2026, April 5). Key socio-economic figures in Q1, 2026.
- Vietnam Briefing. (2025a). Vietnam’s rising purchasing power: 2024 household living standards survey.
- Vietnam Briefing. (2025b, December 9). Vietnam Revises Tax Framework: Key Changes to PIT, VAT, CIT, and SCT.
- Zee, H. H. (2005). Personal income tax reform: Concepts, issues, and comparative country developments (IMF Working Paper No. WP/05/87). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.


