Alternative finance and industrial trajectories in OECD countries: Institutional governance as a protective buffer
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.23(4).2026.12
-
Article InfoVolume 23 2026, Issue #4, pp. 185–201
- 5 Views
-
0 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Type of the article: Research Article
Abstract
The global transition toward non-bank capital allocation systems has altered the trajectory of modern industrial development during volatile market cycles. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of private risk equity across a panel of thirty-eight developed economies from 2010 to 2024. Quantitative estimations rely on a panel error correction model and interactive fixed effects specifications to separate long-run equilibrium trajectories from short-run transactional volatility. Long-run empirical parameters establish that a ten percent expansion in venture capital inflows drives a long-run real gross domestic product increase of 1.43%. The structural systems display robust dynamic stability by automatically correcting 45.2% of growth deviations annually following capital deployment disruptions. Short-run transmission vectors show that a ten percent liquidity injection increases research and development intensity by an absolute 0.0085 percentage points within the same calendar year. Interaction modeling reveals a significant negative moderation coefficient of –0.0004877 for the small enterprise tracking path. This negative vector demonstrates that high-quality public governance structures flatten the short-run capital transmission slope, acting as a structural buffer that shifts the baseline intercept of small business contributions from a low-governance margin of 11.33 up to an insulated high-governance margin of 14.11. Strong institutional protections and anti-corruption frameworks ensure that financial innovations enhance long-term economic stability rather than causing short-term friction.
Acknowledgments
The authors express gratitude to our respective university departments and institutional research groups for providing the technical infrastructure necessary to conduct this study. We also recognize the participants of internal research seminars whose early feedback helped refine the core empirical parameters of the econometric models.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G24, O16, C23, O43
-
References64
-
Tables5
-
Figures3
-
- Figure 1. Cointegration and long-run trajectories (bivariate trend plot)
- Figure 2. The delayed catalyst effect (lead-lag cross-correlation chart)
- Figure 3. Institutional buffer mechanism (divergent governance paths)
-
- Table 1. Descriptive statistics
- Table 2. Multicollinearity diagnostics
- Table 3. Panel unit root test results
- Table 4. Panel cointegration (Kao test)
- Table 5. Empirical regression matrix
-
- Abusomwan, S. O., & Arodoye, L. N. (2017). Small and medium enterprises’ financing and dynamics of gross fixed capital formation: Evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Research in National Development, 15(1), 138-145.
- Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2005). Institutions as a fundamental cause of long-run growth. In P. Aghion & S. N. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of economic growth (Vol. 1A, pp. 385-472). Elsevier.
- Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (2009). The economics of growth. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Press.
- Aghion, P., Howitt, P., & Mayer-Foulkes, D. (2005). The effect of financial development on convergence: Theory and evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(1), 173-222.
- Alotaibi, K. O., Al-Shurafa, M. A., Al-Daihani, M., & Bouteraa, M. (2025). Sectoral contributions to financial market resilience: Evidence from GCC countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(8), 460.
- Anagnostopoulos, I., Sails, T., & Alexandrou, G. (2025). FinTechs, BigTechs and diminishing bank franchise values: Stakeholder perspectives on a disruptive emerging financial ecosystem. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 212, Article 123924.
- Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297.
- Arnold, N. G., Claveres, G., & Frie, J. (2024). Stepping up venture capital to finance innovation in Europe (IMF Working Paper No. 2024/146). International Monetary Fund.
- Audretsch, D. B., Belitski, M., Chowdhury, F., & Desai, S. (2022). Necessity or opportunity? Government size, tax policy, corruption, and implications for entrepreneurship. Small Business Economics, 58(4), 2025-2042.
- Baldacci, E., Hillman, A. L., & Kojo, N. C. (2004). Growth, governance, and fiscal policy transmission channels in low-income countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(3), 517-549.
- Beck, T. (2013). Bank financing for SMEs – Lessons from the literature. National Institute Economic Review, 225(1), R23-R38.
- Beck, T., & Demirguc-Kunt, A. (2006). Small and medium-size enterprises: Access to finance as a growth constraint. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(11), 2931-2943.
- Beck, T., Levine, R., & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1-2), 261-300.
- Bocken, N. M. P. (2015). Sustainable venture capital – Catalyst for sustainable start-up success? Journal of Cleaner Production, 108, 647-658.
- Bun, M. J. G., & Windmeijer, F. (2010). The weak instrument problem of the system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models. The Econometrics Journal, 13(1), 95–126.
- Buratti, M., & Menter, M. (2025). The resilience of entrepreneurial ecosystems: An analysis of ecosystem network structures. Review of Managerial Science, 20, 2207-2239.
- Chang, K., Zeng, Y., Wang, W., & Wu, X. (2019). The effects of credit policy and financial constraints on tangible and research & development investment: Firm-level evidence from China's renewable energy industry. Energy Policy, 130, 438-447.
- Čihák, M., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Feyen, E., & Levine, R. (2012). Benchmarking financial systems around the world (Policy Research Working Paper No. 6175). World Bank.
- Cumming, D. J. (2006). The determinants of venture capital portfolio size: Empirical evidence. The Journal of Business, 79(3), 1083-1126.
- Davidor, S., Dako, O. F., Nwachukwu, P. S., Bankole, F. A., & Lateefat, T. (2023). An SME loan structuring framework: Customized credit solutions in North American commercial banking. International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Studies, 3(2), 1275-1292.
- Del Gaudio, B. L., Sampagnaro, G., Porzio, C., & Verdoliva, V. (2022). The signaling role of trade credit in bank lending decisions: Evidence from small and medium‐sized enterprises. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 49(1-2), 327-354.
- Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549-560.
- Eberhardt, M., & Teal, F. (2011). Econometrics for grumblers: A new look at the literature on cross-country growth empirics. Journal of Economic Surveys, 25(1), 109-155.
- El-Chaarani, H., & El-Abiad, Z. (2024). The impact of public legal protection on the internal corporate governance efficiency in banking sector. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 40(3), 482-515.
- Elgammal, M. M., Al Bakri, A. A., & AlJanahi, A. Y. (2023). The effect of new and traditional sources of financing on the performance of small and entrepreneurship businesses: The case of Qatar. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(2), 2183667.
- Fan, X. (2025). Digital technology and financial capital. China Political Economy, 8(2), 158-176.
- Fernández, A., & Tamayo, C. E. (2017). From institutions to financial development and growth: What are the links? Journal of Economic Surveys, 31(1), 17-57.
- Florida, R., & Smith, D. F., Jr. (1990). Venture capital, innovation, and economic development. Economic Development Quarterly, 4(4), 345-360.
- French, K., Baily, M., Campbell, J., Cochrane, J., Diamond, D., Duffie, D., Kashyap, A., Mishkin, F., Rajan, R., Scharfstein, D., Shiller, R., Shin, S. H., Slaughter, M., Stein, J., & Stulz, R. (2010). The Squam Lake report: fixing the financial system. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 22(3), 8-21.
- Gallo, E., Jona-Lasinio, C., & Samoncini, B. (2025). Green investment and productivity dynamics. Review of Income and Wealth, 71(3), Article e70024.
- Gan, Q. (2023). Financial system and technology innovation in an emerging economy: Can innovation efficiency be increased? Kybernetes, 52(12), 6049-6062.
- Goel, A., Garg, P., & Kumar, M. (2024). Decentralized finance: A catalyst for smart global value chains in future financial ecosystems. In A. Garg, A. Jain, M. Singh, & F. Al-Turjman (Eds.), Smart global value chain: Future innovations (pp. 198-211). CRC Press.
- Gupta, P., & Antony, A. (2026). Institutional voids and financial markets: An institutional theory perspective. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets.
- Ha, P. V., & Frömmel, M. (2023). Corruption, business environment, and firm growth in Vietnam. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(3), 2512–2529.
- Hoechle, D. (2007). Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence. The Stata Journal, 7(3), 281-312.
- Huang, Y., Zhang, L., Li, Z., Qiu, H., Sun, T., & Wang, X. (2020). Fintech credit risk assessment for SMEs: Evidence from China (IMF Working Paper No. 20/193). International Monetary Fund.
- Johan, S., & Zhang, M. (2021). Information asymmetries in private equity: Reporting frequency, endowments, and governance. Journal of Business Ethics, 174(1), 199-220.
- Kato, A. I. (2025). Unveiling venture capital’s disruptive power: Fuelling innovation and economic growth in high-impact firms in East Africa. Future Business Journal, 11(1), Article 174.
- Kato, A. I., & Manchidi, N. H. (2025). Venture capital’s role in driving nascent enterprises to industry market leaders. Cogent Business & Management, 12(1), 2484458.
- Kleponė, D., & Okunevičiūtė Neverauskienė, L. (2026). An Indexation of Startup Ecosystem Maturity and Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability, 18(14), 7212.
- Konstantakopoulou, I. (2023). Financial intermediation, economic growth, and business cycles. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 16(12), 514.
- La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., & Shleifer, A. (2008). The economic consequences of legal origins. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(2), 285-332.
- Laeven, L., Levine, R., & Michalopoulos, S. (2015). Financial innovation and endogenous growth. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 24(1), 1-24.
- Lange, J., Rezepa, S., & Zatrochová, M. (2024). The role of business angels in the early-stage financing of startups: a systematic literature review. Administrative Sciences, 14(10), 247.
- Law, S. H., & Azman-Saini, W. N. W. (2012). Institutional quality, governance, and financial development. Economics of Governance, 13(3), 217-236.
- Li, X., & Ban, C. (2026). Financing technological innovation in China: Neo-developmental financial statecraft through government guidance funds. Review of International Political Economy, 33(1), 131-161.
- Li, X., Xu, Q., Guo, F., & Wang, H. (2023). State‐owned equity participation and private sector enterprises' strategic risk taking: Evidence from China. Managerial and Decision Economics, 44(2), 1107-1124.
- Magazzino, C., & Santeramo, F. G. (2024). Financial development, growth and productivity. Journal of Economic Studies, 51(9), 1-20.
- Molnár, E. M., Németh, Á., & Tupá, M. (2026). Driving change? A systematic exploration of private equity and innovation. European Journal of Innovation Management, 29(11), 375-400.
- Mukherjee, A., Owen, R., Scott, J. M., & Lyon, F. (2026). Financing green innovation startups: a systematic literature review on early-stage SME funding. Venture Capital, 28(2-3), 149-175.
- Norbäck, P. J., Persson, L., & Tåg, J. (2025). Risky business: venture capital, pivoting and scaling. Small Business Economics, 64(3), 1285-1319.
- North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press.
- Oyetade, D. T., Kishimba, K. J., Akande, J. O., & Muzindutsi, P. F. (2025). Measurement of Non-bank Financial Intermediation. In S. Zhou (Eds.), Shadow Banking and Financial Risk in Emerging and Developing Markets: The Growth and Development of Non-Bank Financial Intermediation (pp. 51-72). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634.
- Prencipe, A. (2026). Venture Capital, Private Equity and External Financing in European High-Tech Entrepreneurial Firms: The Moderating Role of Investor Protection. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 19(7), 460.
- Ranchordas, S. H., & Meoli, R. (2024). Regulatory sandboxes for sustainable finance. Law and Economics Yearly Review, 13(2), 243-280.
- Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, 9(1), 86-136.
- Rundel, C., & Salemink, K. (2021). Hubs, hopes and high stakes for a relatively disadvantaged low tech place. Local Economy, 36(7-8), 650-668.
- Samila, S., & Sorenson, O. (2011). Venture capital, entrepreneurship, and economic growth. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(1), 338-349.
- Sun, Y. (2026). From resource curse to resilience restructuring: How does the innovation ecosystems' organicity reshape industrial transformation in resource-based regions? A case study of China's π-shaped Curve Area. Applied Geography, 188, 103907.
- Thakor, R. T., & Lo, A. W. (2017). Optimal financing for R&D-intensive firms (No. w23831). National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Trancoso, T., & Gomes, S. (2024). Green shocks: The spillover effects of green equity indices on global market dynamics. Economies, 12(4), 83.
- Wang, L., Sun, Y., & Tiong, R. L. (2024). Institutional quality configuration for encouraging private capital participation in PPP projects: evidence from 36 belt and road countries. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 17(6-7), 898-922.
- Xu, X., Tan, L., & Zhao, J. (2025). Sustainable finance and renewable energy investment as dual drivers of economic growth and environmental sustainability in the European Union. Research in Economics, 79(4), 101065.


