A game-theoretical model for investment in inclusive recreation and wellness in Ukraine: the regional context

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Investing in recreation and wellness in transitional economies requires updating an inclusive approach and adjusting national regional policies. The article aims to provide the game and theoretical decision-making modeling regarding the direction of capital investment in the development of inclusive wellness and recreation in the regions of Ukraine. Considering this, a comparative analysis of relevant indicators, above all, the self-assessment level of population health, has been conducted. The “game against nature” method allows formalizing the social and market contradictions of regional development of wellness and recreation. Using Ukraine as an example, the analysis of the payoff matrix by decision-making criteria such as the Bayes-Laplace’s criterion, the Savage’s criterion, the Wald’s criterion and the Hurwitz’s criteria, establishes the priority areas for investment: the maximum investment amount is for the middle-income regions and the minimum – for the high-income regions. However, there is a significant disparity in investment in health and recreation across regions. The situation requires a transformation of the target function: from providing social subsidies to maximizing person’s well-being in the physical, mental, social and financial aspects. In the absence of inclusive economic institutions, it is proposed to equalize the weight of the “investment in health” and “investment in recreation” factors and redistribute the total volume of capital investment in regions with relatively low solvency and population health indicators.

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    • Figure 1. Capital investment in recreation and healthcare in Ukraine, UAH mln
    • Figure 2. Conceptual scheme for long-term attraction of investment in inclusive wellness and recreation
    • Table 1. Payoff matrix of the game against nature
    • Table 2. Wellness tourism expenditure, USD bln, 2017 and forecast 2022
    • Table 3. Payoff matrix by region
    • Table 4. Payoff matrix: Bayes-Laplace’s criterion, Wald’s criterion, Maximax criterion
    • Table 5. Payoff matrix: Hurwitz criteria
    • Table 6. Risk matrix: Bayes-Laplace’s risk criterion and Savage’s criterion
    • Table A1. Absolute and relative income and health indicators, by regions of Ukraine, 2017
    • Table A2. Investment in recreation and wellness by regions of Ukraine