Assessing wartime insurance resilience: Development and application of the insurance market wartime resilience index

  • 16 Views
  • 3 Downloads

Creative Commons License DMCA.com Protection Status
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Type of the article: Theoretical Article

Abstract
The functioning of insurance markets during prolonged military conflict remains insufficiently explored in contemporary insurance and risk management literature. The purpose of this study is to develop and apply the Insurance Market Wartime Resilience Index (IMWRI) for assessing insurance market resilience under conditions of military conflict. The empirical calibration combines indicators from both the non-life and life insurance segments; however, the dominant contribution comes from non-life insurance data. Consequently, the resulting IMWRI should be interpreted as a market-wide resilience measure with a stronger sensitivity to developments in the non-life segment. The proposed IMWRI integrates five dimensions of wartime insurance market functioning: premium resilience, claims functionality, reinsurance support, solvency and financial stability, and market structure adaptation. The empirical results demonstrate that the Ukrainian insurance market produces an approximate IMWRI value of 67.9%. The largest contributions are generated by premium resilience (0.2625) and solvency and financial stability (0.2325), followed by market structure and concentration (0.0893) and claims functionality (0.0780). The smallest contribution is provided by reinsurance support (0.0165). This distribution suggests that wartime insurance resilience in Ukraine is driven primarily by internal market capacity and financial stability rather than by external risk-transfer mechanisms. The proposed IMWRI confirms that resilience is generated through a combination of financial stability, premium continuity, institutional adaptation, and selective risk transfer. Therefore, the future development of wartime insurance systems depends not only on strengthening insurers themselves but also on building integrated public-private risk-sharing mechanisms capable of narrowing the gap between market resilience and protection needs.

view full abstract hide full abstract
    • Table 1. Variables and semi-empirical calibration of the IMWRI for Ukraine
    • Table 2. IMWRI interpretation scale
    • Table 3. Sensitivity analysis of IMWRI under alternative weighting scenarios
    • Conceptualization
      Olha Kliuchka, Iryna Chunytska, Olena Zhuravka
    • Funding acquisition
      Olha Kliuchka, Iryna Chunytska
    • Methodology
      Olha Kliuchka, Liudmyla Bohrinovtseva, Yuliia Rusina, Olena Zhuravka
    • Validation
      Olha Kliuchka, Liudmyla Bohrinovtseva
    • Visualization
      Olha Kliuchka, Yuliia Rusina, Natalia Nebaba, Nataliya Khalipova
    • Writing – original draft
      Olha Kliuchka, Liudmyla Bohrinovtseva, Yuliia Rusina, Nataliya Khalipova
    • Data curation
      Liudmyla Bohrinovtseva, Natalia Nebaba, Nataliya Khalipova
    • Formal Analysis
      Liudmyla Bohrinovtseva, Yuliia Rusina, Olena Zhuravka, Natalia Nebaba, Nataliya Khalipova
    • Investigation
      Liudmyla Bohrinovtseva, Natalia Nebaba, Nataliya Khalipova
    • Software
      Liudmyla Bohrinovtseva, Yuliia Rusina, Nataliya Khalipova
    • Supervision
      Liudmyla Bohrinovtseva, Iryna Chunytska, Olena Zhuravka, Natalia Nebaba
    • Project administration
      Iryna Chunytska, Olena Zhuravka
    • Writing – review & editing
      Iryna Chunytska, Olena Zhuravka, Natalia Nebaba
    • Resources
      Natalia Nebaba, Nataliya Khalipova