Cognitive modeling of factors of influence on the processes of formation and reproduction of fixed assets of agricultural enterprises

  • Received November 27, 2018;
    Accepted December 18, 2018;
    Published April 8, 2019
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  • Article Info
    Volume 16 2018, Issue #4, pp. 73-87
  • Cited by
    3 articles

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The features of financial support for reproduction of fixed assets of agrarian enterprises are considered in the article. These include quantitative and qualitative differences in the basic assets of agrarian enterprises, seasonal production, long payback period of capital investments, the reproduction in agricultural enterprises of a significant part of fixed assets in kind, unsustainable financial condition of enterprises and lack of collateral for obtaining long-term loans, undervalued value of fixed assets, no accrual of depreciation on land. For the agricultural enterprises of Ukraine, a cognitive model of the situation "Fixed Assets" was developed, which allows us to investigate factors that determine the possibilities of expanding their reproduction in the light of unstable conditions of functioning. On the basis of cognitive modeling, studies of a possible scenario for the transformation of this system in accordance with the purpose of management have been carried out and modeling the dynamics of the levers of directing the management influences depending on the chosen behavior. It is established that the most significant factors influencing changes in the system of fixed assets are: net profit received by enterprises of the agrarian sector of Ukraine, state support of agricultural producers, foreign investments in agriculture and financing of fixed assets on the basis of leasing. Based on a correlation-regression analysis based on the estimation of stable cause-and-effect relationships, establishing quantitative relations between random variables of the investigated process, conditional forecasts of changes in the size of fixed assets of agricultural enterprises are constructed.

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    • Figure 1. Когнітивна карта напрямків взаємозв’язків системи «основні засоби»
    • Figure 2. Схема впливу основних факторів системи «основні засоби»
    • Figure 3. Графік внесення збурень q = +1 в вершину X3 (чистий прибуток)
    • Figure 4. Графік внесення збурень q = +1 у вершини X7 (державна підтримка)
    • Figure 5. Графік внесення збурень q = +1 у вершини X8 (іноземні інвестиції)
    • Figure 6. Графік внесення збурень q = +1 у вершину X11 (лізинг)
    • Figure 7. Залежності для прогнозу факторів системи «основні засоби»
    • Figure 8. Поверхні моделей основних засобів для факторів: а) Х2, Х9 (Х2 – обсяги виробництва, Х9 – експорт); б) Х1, Х9 (Х1 – фінансові ресурси, Х9 – експорт)
    • Tables 1. Підсумки сценарного моделювання системи «основні засоби»
    • Tables 2. Показники основних мотивуючих факторів (важелів) системи «основні засоби»
    • Tables 3. Кореляційна матриця факторів системи «основні засоби»
    • Tables 4. Лінійні залежності для прогнозу факторів системи «основні засоби»