Aigul Makulbekkyzy Bakirbekova

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Climate disasters increasingly damage infrastructure financed through public-private partnerships (PPPs), yet little is known about how such shocks reshape PPP markets. This paper aims to determine how climate disasters and national adaptation readiness affect PPP activity and design in developing and emerging economies. The analysis uses a balanced panel of 129 economies (2000–2024) with 8,213 PPP financial closures from the World Bank PPI Database merged with the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative index, the EM-DAT international disaster database, and World Bank governance and development indicators, and estimates two-way fixed-effects linear and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood models, with damage and GDP in current US dollars. Neither average damage nor major disasters (damage of at least 1% of GDP) show a robust association with the number of closures; post-event coefficients are negative but mostly insignificant, no pre-event decline is detected, and placebo event dates yield estimates of similar size. A positive coefficient at catastrophic levels (at least 5% of GDP) rests on a single episode and is not read as a reconstruction surge. Project composition does respond. After major disasters, the number of non-renewable closures falls by about 38% (p < 0.001), and by more where readiness is low, while renewable closures are unchanged. A one-standard-deviation improvement in regulatory quality is associated with a 12.6-percentage-point higher probability of a PPP closure (p < 0.01) and roughly 131% larger investment (p < 0.001). Case profiles of Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine reflect the same dominance of institutions. Regulatory strengthening and standby pipelines that keep conventional deals alive through disaster windows are the main levers for disaster-proofing PPP programs.

Acknowledgments
This study was conducted within the framework of the research project “Digitalization of the Public-Private Partnership System as a Driver of the State’s Economic Security in the War and Post-War Periods” (state registration No. 0126U000543), funded by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine.