“Methodology of complex estimation level of socio-ecological and economic development of industrial regions of Ukraine”

The article is devoted to a comprehensive assessment and improvement of the level of regional development on the basis of determining the effectiveness of the mechanism of sustainable development of the region, developing methodical principles for the formation of regional and local strategies for ensuring sustainable development. The purpose is to substantiate the methodology and means of integral assessment to implement the principle of equalization of sustainable development of regions in the aspect of information and innovation support by means of theories of social develop- ment, systems, clustering of the economy and economic information theory. A methodological approach was proposed for assessing the level and trends of sus- tainable development of the region, based on the analysis of declarations, program and final documents of UN conferences on economic, social and environmental issues. The approach is based on the use of an integral index whose evaluation and analysis results can be used to solve problems and are implemented in the process of making sound management decisions. This approach made it possible to formulate, by means of factor analysis, a refined system of indicators that characterize economic, social and environmental sustainability parameters. The typical groups of industrial regions of Ukraine were identified and the level of socio-ecological and economic development was assessed. This made it possible, based on the procedures for reducing the dimension and constructing generalized indicators, to calculate the rating for each calculated integral indicator as a generalized estimate. The calculations that have been carried out make it possible to determine the trends of sustainable development of individual regions on the factors of development and to justify promising directions for effective growth and negative trends, which require the greatest attention from the state authorities and local self-government bodies.


INTRODUCTION
The formation of an effective system for performing quantitative and qualitative evaluation is an important problem in the implementation of the concept of sustainable development. Its main requirements are information completeness and the adequacy of the presentation of the interrelated triad of components of sustainable development. The imbalance of the social, economic and environmental components is a major cause of Ukraine's failure to achieve such development.
The effectiveness of management of sustainable development of the country can be evaluated by a system of indicators that reflect some aspects of development in its conceptual sense, reflect the trends of the region and the impact of various factors on sustainability. Only with the help of the development of industry and social production the country will not be able to achieve a rise. It is necessary to simultaneously take care of the economy, social component and the environment.
A general vision of the new development benchmarks for 2030 and 17 Sustainable Development Goals was provided at the UN Development Summit for the post-2015 period. Ukraine has to implement new programs and projects that in practice will ensure macroeconomic stability, ecological balance and social cohesion at the state, regional and local levels.
Monitoring the achievement of the objectives of sustainable development, management of this process, decision-making process, evaluation of the effectiveness of the means used and the level of achievement of the goals required monitoring of sustainable development of society.
In recent years, significant work in the field of development of indicators has been carried out by a number of teams at the local, regional and global levels as sustainable development in general, as well as its individual aspects. Despite a significant number of researches, to some extent, outstanding issues related to the assessment of sustainable development at the regional and local levels remain unsolved. Despite a large number of methodological approaches used to assess sustainable regional development, there is no systematic approach to assessing such a complex phenomenon. Therefore, the development of an integrated structural meth-odology that objectively determines the problems of sustainable development of the regions of the country, the choice and justification of the goals and strategic directions for its achievement (Ilchenko, 2013) is urgently needed.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Among the whole set of indicators, only such indicators (GRP per capita and degree of depreciation of fixed assets) are relative. All other indicators are absolute, which express the size (volume) of the quantitative characteristics of the phenomena under study in certain units of measurement. In this regard, the ranking of regions of Ukraine in terms of sustainable development cannot be considered correct.
The application of the relative indexes for the calculation of the integral index is important, as evidenced in the work of Y. Korol, by calculations of the level of sustainable development for the Polish voivodeships. The methodological basis of this study is also an assessment of the economic, social and environmental components. But for their characteristics, relative indicators are used, for example, to assess the scientific and technical component: the cost of innovation in industry per capita, the cost of research per inhabitant (Indicators of Sustainable Development, UN Pulpation, 1996). In compiling the ranking of regions in Ukraine, the following indicators were used to assess the level of innovation: the volume of innovation products (thousand UAH), the development of new types of products in industry (units), the introduction of advanced technological processes in industry (units) (Zgurovsky, 2009).
An equally important problem of the existing methodology for calculating the integral indicator of sustainable development of the region is to determine the weighting factor for each parameter on the basis of the volume of revenues in terms of money from one or another sphere of activity, as well as applying for the Pareto principle indicator (ratio 20:80) or 1:1:3, depending on the importance and number of components (Zgurovsky, 2009). At the same time, despite the fact that the value of the calculated weighting factors on a monetary expression reflects a certain imbalance in policy categories (Basic needs -27.0%, Entrepreneurship -57.5%, Labor market -13.0%, Innovation-investment opportunities -2.5%), the authors of the methodology for assessing the level of sustainable development of the regions of Ukraine consider these categories of policy equally important for the development of the administrative-territorial unit, and therefore accept the same weighted coefficients. Such an approach distorts the results of calculations and conclusions regarding interregional comparisons, because in different regions, the influence of key factors of socio-economic development can vary considerably.

METHODOLOGY
The methodology for measuring sustainable development involves the calculation of the corresponding index in the space of three dimensions: economic, environmental and socio-institutio nal. In this case, institutional development studies are carried out mainly in the social aspect, and its level is assessed taking into account the indicators of political consciousness of citizens, the influence of religious institutions and the effectiveness of state power. However, the institutionalization of sustainable development should envisage improvement of regulatory and legal regulation of organizational support for optimizing the social, economic and environmental components of the region. The information of various international rating agencies as independent sources for measuring the quality of the regional environment is increasingly being used in the assessment of regional development. The practice of monitoring regional ratings is gradually being applied in Ukraine. In particular, the Foundation for Effective Governance has published the 2007 Index of Competitiveness of Regions (Towards Economic Growth and Prosperity, 2012). The value of such a study is based on the methodology of calculating the national competitiveness index to analyze the dynamics of the economic development of the separate region in comparison with other regions, as well as with 144 countries of the world. The index is calculated using the methodology used by the World Economic Forum.
The Institute of Geography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine has developed its own integral index of developmental balance, which reflects the economic-geographical aspects of the development balance. Its application makes it possible to compare the general level of balance of development of individual countries and regions, to analyze the factors that contribute or hinder the achievement of a balanced development within each of the studied areas. On this basis, it is possible to develop a system of measures on the strategy and tactics of the transition to sus-tainable (balanced) development of the specified countries or regions and to determine the priority tasks of implementation and provision of the corresponding policy. Based on the use of the index, the integral index of developmental balance for the countries of the world and regions of Ukraine was calculated (Lisovsky, 2009 Indices and approaches used differ from those proposed by the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development. However, they reflect the principled approach to the relationship of its main components (economic, environmental, social and institutional).
Ukraine, with all the key indicators and indicators of quality of life within sustainable development, is significantly inferior not only to world leaders, but also to the majority of post-socialist countries. Today, given the state of social development, it is not really defined with the strategy of its development. Reforms in the economy, education, innovation or other spheres will not yield the desired results under such conditions. The Institute of Applied Systems Analysis of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in 2009, on the basis of the developed metric, analyzed the regions of Ukraine from the standpoint of sustainable development on the main three dimensions. The analysis was performed on the basis of the developed system of indicators that allow to control the goals of sustainable development, to make decisions, to evaluate the effectiveness of the means used and to achieve the goals set (Sadovenko, Maslovska, Sereda, & Timochko, 2011).
The Institute for Applied Systems Analysis of the National Academy of Science of Ukraine and the Ministry of Education of Ukraine in 2014 improved the methodology of quantitative assessment of regional development processes and analysis of the obtained integrated assessments from the stand-point of the concept of sustainable development. It is important that the assessment of the efforts of the regions of Ukraine to achieve sustainability is carried out not only on the basis of observance of the balance of economic, environmental and social dimensions of development, but also in conjunction with the analysis of aspects of the safety of human life. Information about the ranking of regions of Ukraine in sections of quality and safety components of life is contained in the 2013 report.
The methodology of assessment and analysis of sustainable development includes a model of sustainable development. It is an interdisciplinary generalization of models known in the natural, economic and social sciences.

RESULTS OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OF METHODICAL APPROACHES TO ANALYSIS, ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING OF PARAMETERS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION
The methodology of a comprehensive assessment of the level of socio-ecological and economic development of industrial regions was proposed based on the analysis and synthesis of existing methodological approaches to assessing the level of development of the region, which is based on comparing the conditions and development outcomes of a set of features against the background of the corresponding averages.
Based on the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the Department of Statistics in the regions that characterize the level of economic, social and environmental development of the leading industrial regions of Ukraine in 2012-2018, among the sets of the initial statistical indicators, the method of factor analysis was used to select significant economic, social and environmental indicators (Table 1).
In order to construct a generalized indicator of socio-ecological and economic development of the region of Ukraine, the method of the main components was used for selected aspects.
The necessary measurement procedure is the preliminary unification of the selected output indicators, that is, the application of such a transformation to them, which will all be measured on the N-scale scale. At the same time, the zero value of the transformed indicator will correspond to the lowest level of the region, and the maximum value of N is the highest. Such unification will ensure the comparability and comparability of the existing information base.
For indicator-stimulants, the value of the corresponding unified variable was calculated by the formula: where rj w -the weight with which the j-th indicator of the r-th aspect of development is taken into account in the calculation of the integral indicator.
The construction of an integral index of a particular aspect of development was carried out using the method of factor analysis, called the modified main component method. Weighted coefficients rj w were calculated using the modified main component method.
The area of nonoperability of only scalar indicator of some aspect of development is determined by inequality: * . kk < (9) According to the method of the modified main component, in the calculations using formula (2), the squares of the components rj w j of their own It should be noted that during the calculations with the help of the method of the modified first main component, the dispersion, which is explained by the first main component for all aspects of the development considered, was more than 50%, that is, in all cases, the criterion of the method performance was performed.
The calculation of the total dispersion explained by the first main component for constructing a component matrix on the aspect of economic development is given below ( Table 2).
The following is a calculation of the total dispersion, which is explained by the first main component for constructing a component matrix on the aspect of social and environmental development ( Table 4).         The influence of ecological factors on the dynamics of the generalized indicator of sustainable development of regions was investigated and a forecast model for 2020-2024 for the analyzed industrial regions of Ukraine was constructed, which, with 95% reliability, is adequate to the observations of the Fisher criterion and can be used for calculating the forecast values of the indicators:  According to the results of the forecast model, there is a decrease in the forecast value of the indicator of the level of socio-ecological and economic development, which negatively affects the ranking of industrial regions. The growth of total waste in the regions is observed due to the lack of their utilization, which poses a threat to the health of the population and security of Ukraine. It is recommended to introduce the process of waste recycling and disposal as an effective means to improve the ecological situation in the regions and, consequently, to increase their level of socio-ecological and economic development.

Initial eigenvalues Sum of squares of extraction loads
A new model has been constructed, according to which the forecast values of the generalized indicator of the level of socio-ecological and economic development of the regions reflect the annual growth in the dynamics of the rating on the 10-point scale compared with the base year 2016 (Table 6): So, it should be noted that in all areas (Table 6)

CONCLUSION
A methodical approach to assessing the level and trends of sustainable development of the region has been proposed. The approach is based on using the integral index. The evaluation and analysis results can be used to discuss problems and are implemented in the process of making sound management decisions. This approach by the factor analysis method allowed, based on the quantitative data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the main statistics departments in the regions, to formulate a refined system of indicators that characterize economic, social and environmental sustainability parameters. Typical groups of regions of Ukraine were selected and an assessment of the level of socioecological and economic development was carried out (for example, five industrial regions, namely Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy). This made it possible, based on the procedures for reducing the dimension and constructing generalized indicators, to calculate the rating for each calculated integral indicator as a generalized estimate. The integral indicator allowed to determine the ranking of industrial regions by the level of information provision of socio-ecological and economic potential. This was done in order to identify areas for the distribution of innovation and information resources and to reduce the disproportions in the overall regional development, as well as coherence in the development of socio-cultural and environmental potential with the economic dynamics of the regions.
The calculations that have been carried out make it possible to determine the trends of sustainable development of individual regions according to development factors, as well as justify prospective directions for effective growth and negative tendencies, which require the greatest attention from the state authorities and local municipality. It was found that the most important problems of industrial regions arise precisely because of environmental factors that negatively affect the health and quality of life, respectively.
The proposed methodological approach can be used in the development and implementation of strategies for sustainable development of regions and in the process of regional development management in order to increase the efficiency of decision-making at the level of regional, local state administrations and local self-government bodies.