Climate disasters and the resilient design of public-private partnerships: Evidence from developing and emerging economies

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Climate disasters increasingly damage infrastructure financed through public-private partnerships (PPPs), yet little is known about how such shocks reshape PPP markets. This paper aims to determine how climate disasters and national adaptation readiness affect PPP activity and design in developing and emerging economies. The analysis uses a balanced panel of 129 economies (2000–2024) with 8,213 PPP financial closures from the World Bank PPI Database merged with the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative index, the EM-DAT international disaster database, and World Bank governance and development indicators, and estimates two-way fixed-effects linear and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood models, with damage and GDP in current US dollars. Neither average damage nor major disasters (damage of at least 1% of GDP) show a robust association with the number of closures; post-event coefficients are negative but mostly insignificant, no pre-event decline is detected, and placebo event dates yield estimates of similar size. A positive coefficient at catastrophic levels (at least 5% of GDP) rests on a single episode and is not read as a reconstruction surge. Project composition does respond. After major disasters, the number of non-renewable closures falls by about 38% (p < 0.001), and by more where readiness is low, while renewable closures are unchanged. A one-standard-deviation improvement in regulatory quality is associated with a 12.6-percentage-point higher probability of a PPP closure (p < 0.01) and roughly 131% larger investment (p < 0.001). Case profiles of Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine reflect the same dominance of institutions. Regulatory strengthening and standby pipelines that keep conventional deals alive through disaster windows are the main levers for disaster-proofing PPP programs.

Acknowledgments
This study was conducted within the framework of the research project “Digitalization of the Public-Private Partnership System as a Driver of the State’s Economic Security in the War and Post-War Periods” (state registration No. 0126U000543), funded by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine.

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    • Figure 1. PPP financial closures and renewable technology share of new closures, 2000–2024
    • Figure 2. Event-study estimates of PPP closures around isolated major climate disasters
    • Table 1. Variables, definitions, and data sources
    • Table 2. Descriptive statistics
    • Table 3. Baseline fixed-effects estimates of PPP activity and design
    • Table 4. PPP closures around major climate disasters: Distributed leads and lags
    • Table 5. Dose-response estimates across damage bands and mortality shocks
    • Table 6. Post-disaster composition of PPP closures and adaptation readiness
    • Table 7. Post-disaster PPP activity across country groups
    • Table 8. Case profiles of Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, 2000–2024
    • Table A1. Sample composition by country: Income group, PPP closures, and major-disaster country-years, 2000–2024
    • Table B1. Pairwise correlations of the main variables, balanced panel, 2000–2024
    • Table C1. Readiness interactions
    • Table C2. Vulnerability interactions
    • Table D1. Catastrophic disasters and PPP closures in the surrounding years
    • Table E1. Event-study estimates with sub-threshold controls and strict isolation
    • Conceptualization
      Aigul Makulbekkyzy Bakirbekova, Narek M. Kesoyan, Oleksii Zakharkin, Volodymyr Khomanets, Nataliia Kovshun, Mykhailo Pyrtko, Yuliia Pereguda
    • Methodology
      Aigul Makulbekkyzy Bakirbekova, Oleksii Zakharkin, Nataliia Kovshun, Yuliia Pereguda
    • Software
      Aigul Makulbekkyzy Bakirbekova, Narek M. Kesoyan, Volodymyr Khomanets
    • Validation
      Aigul Makulbekkyzy Bakirbekova, Narek M. Kesoyan, Oleksii Zakharkin, Nataliia Kovshun, Mykhailo Pyrtko, Yuliia Pereguda
    • Visualization
      Aigul Makulbekkyzy Bakirbekova, Narek M. Kesoyan, Nataliia Kovshun, Mykhailo Pyrtko, Yuliia Pereguda
    • Writing – original draft
      Aigul Makulbekkyzy Bakirbekova, Narek M. Kesoyan, Oleksii Zakharkin, Volodymyr Khomanets, Nataliia Kovshun, Mykhailo Pyrtko, Yuliia Pereguda
    • Data curation
      Narek M. Kesoyan, Volodymyr Khomanets, Mykhailo Pyrtko, Yuliia Pereguda
    • Formal Analysis
      Narek M. Kesoyan, Oleksii Zakharkin, Volodymyr Khomanets, Nataliia Kovshun
    • Resources
      Narek M. Kesoyan, Volodymyr Khomanets, Nataliia Kovshun, Mykhailo Pyrtko
    • Project administration
      Oleksii Zakharkin
    • Supervision
      Oleksii Zakharkin
    • Writing – review & editing
      Oleksii Zakharkin, Nataliia Kovshun, Mykhailo Pyrtko
    • Investigation
      Volodymyr Khomanets, Mykhailo Pyrtko, Yuliia Pereguda